FEDERAL DOUBLED IN PARLIAMENT

By Amir S. Ali

Canada’s Green Party of Canada enjoyed victory on Monday, May 06, 2019, in a special election for a parliamentary seat of NanaimoLadysmith, British Columbia with about 38 percent of the vote casted. Paul Manly’s victory is the 2nd win for Greens, federally in 36 years. NDP was holding on to this seat which became vacant after the New Democrats Party (NDP) member decided to quit. The results are quite upsetting for both Liberals and NDP headed by Jagmeet Singh.

In February, Singh won the Burnaby South, British Columbia by-election, nearly 18 months after winning the federal NDP leadership. The 40-yearold captured 39 per cent of the vote. Liberal candidate Richard T. Lee finished second with 26 per cent and Conservative candidate Jay Shin appeared third with 22.5 per cent. Laura-Lynn Thompson of the People’s Party of Canada finished fourth with 10.6 percent. It is evident that Peoples Party candidate’s win actually caused Conservative seat to go to NDP.

In February, Singh won the Burnaby South, British Columbia by-election, nearly 18 months after winning the federal NDP leadership. The 40-yearold captured 39 per cent of the vote. Liberal candidate Richard T. Lee finished second with 26 per cent and Conservative candidate Jay Shin appeared third with 22.5 per cent. Laura-Lynn Thompson of the People’s Party of Canada finished fourth with 10.6 percent. It is evident that Peoples Party candidate’s win actually caused Conservative seat to go to NDP.

Unfortunately, The Liberals are being accused of interference in a corporate corruption case that caused the resignations of their two cabinet members, a top PM adviser and
the head of the federal civil service. This scandal would die down soon but would re-surface during election time/debates that would eventually damage Liberals to win a majority.

According to ABACAS data, currently, 32% approve of the performance of the Trudeau government, while 49% disapprove. These numbers are also basically unchanged from our last reading in April. Today 49% say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 48% in our last poll. 47% say they would consider voting Conservative, down 3 points. 45% would consider the NDP, compared to 44%, 44% would consider the Greens (up 4 points since April and 8-points since December), and 21% would consider voting for the People’s Party. In Quebec, 28% would consider voting for the BQ.

The same data predicts that if an election were held tomorrow, 33% say they would vote Liberal, 32% Conservative, 16% NDP, and 12% Green. These numbers suggest some softening of Conservative support over the month, some strengthening of the Green Party, and an ongoing weak trend for the NDP. Today, the NDP trails the Green party in BC, Saskatchewan & Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, where the NDP won 25% of the vote and 16 seats in 2015, the party is polling at 10% only two points ahead of the Greens and 34
points behind the Liberals.